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NCJ Number: 91028 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: Arson in Newark - A Study in Prediction and Patterns
Author(s): H S Baxi
Date Published: 1982
Page Count: 109
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
NCJRS Photocopy Services
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
New Jersey State Law Enforcement Planning Agency
Trenton, NJ 08625
Newark Office of Criminal Justice Planning

US Dept of Justice
Washington, DC 20531
Grant Number: 80-DF-AX-0006
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America

NCJRS Photocopy Services
Box 6000
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
United States of America
Document: PDF
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: Using specific information about a structure (amount of all taxes due, number of nonserious building code and fire code violations, number of Index crimes committed in the structure, and insurance information), one can predict with 70-percent probability of correct classification, whether or not that structure will have an arson.
Abstract: The study developed a statistical formula, called discriminant function, to predict structures that are likely to have future arsons. Its purpose was to reduce or prevent structural arsons in Newark, N.J. The study population consisted of all structures in Newark which had experienced an arson for the first time between Jan. 1, 1980, to April 30, 1981. A sample of 127 structures was selected and matched with 127 structures that had not had an arson during this period. Data were collected on structures in the arson and match samples. From the analysis, the discriminant function recommended for use by the fire department to predict which structures will probably be arson targets involves those factors noted above. The report details data collection procedures, data analyses, patterns of arson, and repeated arsons in Newark. Tables and footnotes are provided. (Author summary modified)
Index Term(s): Anti-Arson Programs; Arson; New Jersey
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