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NCJRS Abstract

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NCJ Number: 92958 Find in a Library
Title: Crime and Arrest Rate Predictions for the States of Alaska and Oregon - Executive Summary
Author(s): K Johnson; R McCleary; J Angell; J Eidson
Corporate Author: University of Alaska
Justice Center
United States of America
Date Published: Unknown
Page Count: 18
Sponsoring Agency: Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS)
Washington, DC 20531
National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
NCJRS Photocopy Services
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
University of Alaska
Anchorage, AK 99504
Grant Number: 82-BJ-CX-K420
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America

NCJRS Photocopy Services
Box 6000
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
United States of America
Document: PDF
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This summary of a crime forecasting study conducted for Alaska and Oregon concludes that overall crime rates in both States will increase through 1987, although the bulk of the increase will be in nonviolent or property crime.
Abstract: Based on several years of monthly crime and arrest statistics collected from 16 Alaska and 36 Oregon Uniform Crime Reporting areas, Box-Jenkins models were constructed for 96 crime and arrest series. The forecasts generated by these models showed that violent crime is expected to remain stable in Alaska through 1987, with the exception of Anchorage where it should rise modestly. An expected increase in property crimes will be realized almost entirely in Anchorage. Violent crime in six of the seven Oregon forecasting regions is expected to remain constant or even decline through 1987. In Regions 1 and 2, property crime is expected to increase, although at a lesser rate than during the pre-1982 period. In Alaska, the rate of clearance by arrest for property crime is expected to rise slightly and then gradually begin declining through 1987. However, arrests for violent crime are expected to decline in 1983 and then level off. In contrast, arrests for both violent and property crime in Oregon are expected to increase substantially. Additional analyses suggested that revisions in the Alaska Criminal Code in 1980 may have resulted in a decrease in violent and property crime. The report includes suggestions for resolving forecasting problems and maps.
Index Term(s): Alaska; Arrest statistics; Crime patterns; Crime prediction; Oregon
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