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NCJ Number: 94368 Find in a Library
Title: Prison Population Forecasting and Management Information Statistics - 'The State of the Art in Maine'
Corporate Author: Maine Criminal Justice Data Ctr
Dept of Corrections
United States of America
Date Published: Unknown
Page Count: 41
Sponsoring Agency: Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS)
Washington, DC 20531
Maine Criminal Justice Data Ctr
Augusta, ME 04333
National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
NCJRS Photocopy Services
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
Grant Number: 81-BJ-CX-K418
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America

NCJRS Photocopy Services
Box 6000
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
United States of America
Document: PDF
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: A methodology used by the State of Maine to forecast the prison population is described.
Abstract: A linear regression model was developed with the incarceration rate per thousand as the dependent variable and year as the independent variable. Once the incarceration rates are plotted, these figures are converted into actual estimates of total assigned inmates for these years. This is done by multiplying the incarceration rate for the 18-34 year-old male population estimate for that year. This procedure yields the yearly estimate of inmates assigned to the Department of Corrections. To monitor the accuracy of the estimates, the actual average inmate population is computed after the completion of the first quarter. This actual population is compared with the projected population for that quarter. The difference between these two observations is calculated by subtracting the estimate from the actual and then dividing this result by the actual number of inmates from that quarter, thereby revealing the error in the estimate. The yearly estimate is adjusted by this value and the second, third, and fourth quarter estimates are recalculated. Reasons why Maine does not have a data system in place are examined; among other reasons, the Department of Corrections has a manual system with unique problems that are not easily solved.
Index Term(s): Estimating methods; Maine; Mathematical modeling; Prison population prediction
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=94368

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