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NCJ Number: 97206 Find in a Library
Title: Forecasting Prisoner Numbers - A Computer Model for Correctional Administrators
Author(s): J Walker
Corporate Author: Australian Institute of Criminology
Australia
Date Published: 1984
Page Count: 78
Sponsoring Agency: Australian Institute of Criminology
Canberra ACT, 2601, Australia
Sale Source: Australian Institute of Criminology
GPO Box 2944
Canberra ACT, 2601,
Australia
Language: English
Country: Australia
Annotation: To facilitate the identification of future trends in Australia's prisoner numbers, this monograph identifies the key features of a corrections forecasting model, reviews the operational logic of the Oracle Model developed to forecast the Victoria corrections population, and discusses the use of this model and model results.
Abstract: The first section uses examples from Victoria to discuss the statistical relationships between the demographic structure of the general population and the composition of the 'clientele' of the justice and penal systems. It presents evidence to support the contention that these relationships are sufficiently stable over time to be used in projecting future client numbers. After reviewing the types of models which traditionally have been used in this kind of forecasting, a subsequent section identifies the stages of the Oracle Model. The latter model takes receivals from the court system during a year, adds them to the various correction populations on hand at the beginning of the year, and works out which of those individuals will still be under correctional treatment at the end of the year. A figure shows a flowchart of the model. Reporting model use and model results, the final section identifies the need to obtain a 'base run' and considers initial variations on the base run. It also presents an optimistic, most likely, and a pessimistic scenario and discusses implications for the security classification system of the selected scenarios and the effects of the various scenarios on noncustodial client numbers. Nine tables, 23 figures, and 23 references are provided. Appendixes contain the Fortran listing and definitions of the variables used.
Index Term(s): Australia; Computer program models; Demography; Dispositions; Estimating methods; Future trends; Prison population prediction
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http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=97206

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