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NCJ Number: 98602 Find in a Library
Title: Crimes, Arrests, and Elections - Predicting Winners and Losers
Journal: Journal of Criminal Justice  Volume:13  Issue:4  Dated:(1985)  Pages:321-327
Author(s): R Surette
Date Published: 1985
Page Count: 7
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: Political candidates are frequently identified as being either 'law and order' advocates or 'soft' on crime; however, the importance of actual arrest and crime levels on election outcomes has not been examined empirically. One
Abstract: particular set of candidates for whom arrest and crime rates might be expected to be predictive is publicly elected law enforcement officials. Using 1976 Florida County Sheriff election data, this article examines the capacity for discriminating between winning and losing incumbent sheriffs by using county arrest and crime data in association with socioeconomic and political information. The findings show that a significant discrimination is obtained (significant = 0.009, canonical correlation = 0.59, and 76 percent of the counties were correctly classified) and that crimes and arrests are significant factors in determining the outcome of sheriff elections. The results indicate that although traditional political factors, such as party affiliation and number of terms in office, and socioeconomic factors, such as income, density, and unemployment rates, do well in discriminating winning from losing candidates, a sheriff-election model must also incorporate crime and arrest information, particularly information on murder and rape. (Author abstract)
Index Term(s): Arrest statistics; Crime Rate; Florida; Public Attitudes/Opinion; Reactions to crime; Sheriffs
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