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NCJ Number: 99007 Find in a Library
Title: Criminological Prediction - An Introduction (From Prediction in Criminology, P 2-33, 1985, David P Farrington and Roger Tarling, ed. - See NCJ-99006)
Author(s): D P Farrington; R Tarling
Date Published: 1985
Page Count: 32
Sponsoring Agency: State University of New York Press
Albany, NY 12207
Sale Source: State University of New York Press
90 State Street, Suite 700
Albany, NY 12207
United States of America
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This chapter examines prediction methods and issues in criminological research, with a focus on multivariate prediction and the selection, combination, and measurement of predictor variables.
Abstract: Specific application of prediction methods are presented in summaries of studies of dangerousness, delinquency, evaluation of penal treatments and parole, and police and correctional decisionmaking. Some of the methods used include scoring systems, scale, logistic regression, multivariate analyses of personality and other psychometric measures, Burgess-type point scores, and comparative analyses. Forecasting (e.g., future crime rates, resource allocation, criminal justice system processing) using mathematical and computer models also is examined. Basic issues in predictive research are discussed, including the availability of data, selection of predictor variables and measures, combining predictors, selecting criterion variables, measuring predictive efficiency, and the determination of shrinkage through comparisons of data from construction and validation samples. Emphasis is placed on the need for a theoretical foundation in the selection of predictors, criteria, and methods of combining predictors into a prediction instrument. Ethical issues in prediction research and areas for further research also are considered. A total of 125 references are listed.
Index Term(s): Criminal justice research; Estimating methods; Prediction; Research design; Research methods
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