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NCJ Number: 99325 Find in a Library
Title: Investigative Models (From Critical Issues in Criminal Investigation, P 21-27, 1984, Michael Palmiotto, ed. - See NCJ-99323)
Author(s): T C Gray; W F Wegener
Date Published: 1984
Page Count: 7
Sponsoring Agency: Pilgrimage
Cincinnati, OH 45201
Sale Source: Pilgrimage
Division of Anderson Publishing
P.O. Box 1576
Cincinnati, OH 45201
United States of America
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This article considers the use of predictive models, based on computerized information management systems, in police investigations within the context of research carried out by the Federal Government and in California.
Abstract: Computers used for investigative inquiry work on a probabilistic model that developed from volumes of historical data about individual and groups of criminals and their methods of operation. Federally funded, crime-specific prevention programs in such areas as robbery, burglary, and auto theft have led to the development of a technology that has permitted the correlation of information about when, where, how, and what crimes are likely to occur. This additional knowledge, in turn, has led to the refinement of resource allocations and better administrative control of resources. Following the Federal lead, California has developed a program aimed toward the serious or habitual offender. Information on parolees' physical description, vehicular access, and known associates was reduced to concrete numerical descriptors. Detectives were directed toward locations of burglaries at the proper time through an analysis of crime patterns and known methods of criminal operation. This resulted in 12 separate arrests over a 2-week period. This model of investigative inquiry is a first step toward a predictive model. It assumes that cause and effect is an objective reality, reduces the investigator's social context bias, and establishes crime patterns and trends. Further research and development of this investigative paradigm, based on computer-aided predictability, should permit police to mount proactive anticrime campaigns. Nine notes and nine references are provided.
Index Term(s): Computer aided investigations; Crime analysis; Crime patterns; Crime prediction; Crime prevention measures; Crime typologies; Criminal investigation; Criminal methods; Mathematical modeling; Offender profiles
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