skip navigation


Register for Latest Research

Stay Informed
Register with NCJRS to receive NCJRS's biweekly e-newsletter JUSTINFO and additional periodic emails from NCJRS and the NCJRS federal sponsors that highlight the latest research published or sponsored by the Office of Justice Programs.

NCJRS Abstract

The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Virtual Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the Virtual Library. See the Obtain Documents page for direction on how to access resources online, via mail, through interlibrary loans, or in a local library.


NCJ Number: 99667 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: Revealed Preferences of the Criminal Justice System During a Period of Workload Shedding, Report 3 - Prison Population Projection Analysis
Author(s): A I Barnett; T F Rich; R C Larson
Corporate Author: Public Systems Evaluation, Inc
United States of America
Date Published: 1984
Page Count: 49
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice (NIJ)
Washington, DC 20531
Public Systems Evaluation, Inc
Cambridge, MA 02139
US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
Washington, DC 20531
Grant Number: 82-IJ-CX-0044
Format: Document
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This report describes a method for estimating future prison populations using a variety of assumptions about sentencing policies and demographic factors.
Abstract: Following a review of previous modeling efforts, another method for projecting prison populations is presented based on a familiar model of individual criminal careers. The implementation of the model is discussed using data from Pennsylvania. Projections are then made, using data from Massachusetts, Utah, and South Carolina to forecast prison populations through the year 2020. Four different amendments to current sentencing policy are also considered in terms of their effects on prison populations. Two of these changes involve increases in all prison terms, while two changes increase only the sentences given to older offenders. The projections based on the status quo in sentencing indicate a general upward trend in prison populations, even though the birth rate surge following World War II will not dominate future developments. Appendixes explain the importance of the average sentence length and present the status quo projections for Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Utah, and South Carolina.
Index Term(s): Future trends; Mathematical modeling; Prison population prediction; Sentencing reform
To cite this abstract, use the following link:

*A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents not available online, a link to the publisher's website is provided. Tell us how you use the NCJRS Library and Abstracts Database - send us your feedback.