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NCJRS Abstract

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NCJ Number: 99718 Find in a Library
Title: Age-Cohort Analysis of Arrest Rates
Journal: Journal of Quanitative Criminology  Volume:1  Issue:3  Dated:(September 1985)  Pages:227-240
Author(s): D F Greenberg; N J Larkin
Date Published: 1985
Page Count: 14
Type: Statistics
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: Logistic regressions of age-period-cohort models for city arrest rates were estimated with data from seven cities for the years 1970-80 to examine the dependence of officially designated criminality in selected offense categories on age.
Abstract: Analyses of goodness of fit for one-, two-, and three-factor models indicate that the three-factor model provides the best fit. Age parameters show a decline in arrests from age 15-19 to age 20-24, followed by an increase at age 25-29 and a slow decline thereafter. Age parameters were different for different offense categories. Property crime arrests decline steadily from the age 15-19 maximum. Drunken driving rises to age 35-39, then declines; violent crime shows a similar pattern but declines more slowly with age. Murder and rape peak at age 15-19 then decline, while age parameters for aggravated assault rise steadily to age 35-39. Auto theft, burglary, and robbery show patterns similar to those for murder and rape, while larceny declines to age 20-24 and then remains flat to age 55-59. While these results appear striking at face value, a sensitivity analysis indicates that the parameter estimates are highly sensitive to model specification. Implications of this sensitivity are discussed. Included are 33 references.
Index Term(s): Age group comparisons; Arrest statistics; Crime patterns; Mathematical modeling; Statistical analysis
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