Comparing UCR and NCVS Estimates of Offending Rates

As noted previously, UCR data indicate that the average annual juvenile arrest rate for serious violent crimes during 1980–98 was 5 per 1,000 persons ages 12 to 17. NCVS data indicate that, depending on whether adult co-offending is excluded or included, the juvenile offending rate for the same crimes during the same period was 9 to 15 times the juvenile arrest rate (44 per 1,000 excluding adult co-offending and 75 per 1,000 including adult co-offending). This is not unreasonable, considering that only 20 percent of the violent crimes by juveniles reported in victim surveys are reported to the police and that, of those crimes reported to the police, approximately 50 percent lead to an arrest.

The broad trends in the UCR arrest data and NCVS offending data are similar. Both show decreases in the early 1980s followed by an increase later in the decade, with continued high rates until the mid-1990s, when rates dropped dramatically (figure 1 and figure 12). Arrest rates reached a low point in 1987 but increased steadily thereafter until 1994, when they began to drop. Offending rates reached a low point in 1987 and then increased in 1988. These higher rates persisted until 1994, when they began to trend downward.

The increases observed in the mid-1980s were similar for offending rates and arrest rates, but the decreases in the 1990s were greater for offending rates than for arrest rates. Between 1987 and 1993, the juvenile arrest rate increased about 70 percent, while the juvenile offending rate increased between 114 percent (including adult co-offending) and 195 percent (excluding adult co-offending). Regardless of the assumptions that are made about adult co-offending, the increase in the offending rate was greater than the increase in the arrest rate. Similarly, the juvenile arrest rate for serious violent crimes declined 27 percent from 1993 to 1998, while the juvenile offending rate for serious violent crimes declined between 57 percent (including adult co-offending) and 60 percent (excluding adult co-offending) during the same period. The increases and decreases in the offending rate during 1980–98 were much greater than the increases and decreases in the arrest rate.

Comparison by Gender

The data on both arrests and offending showed higher rates of serious violent offending for male juveniles than female juveniles. The overrepresentation of males was greater in the data on offending than in the arrest data. This means that, given their offending rates, male juveniles were underrepresented and female juveniles were overrepresented in arrest data. The disproportionality of male offending decreased over time but more so in arrest data than in offending data.

The ratio of male juveniles to female juveniles was lower in the arrest data than in the offending data. For serious violent crimes (i.e., forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault), the average ratio of male juveniles to female juveniles was 6.8 in the arrest data but ranged between 9 (excluding adult co-offending) and 11.5 (including adult co-offending) in the offending data. This discrepancy may be due to the fact that more crimes involving intimates (e.g., siblings, dating couples) are reported in the NCVS than in police data systems. There may be more male offenders in these crimes than in other types of violent crimes, resulting in a higher ratio of male to female offenders. Domestic violence, for example, is more often committed by males than females.

Between 1980 and 1998, the male-female ratio for juvenile arrest rates for serious violent crimes decreased from 8.3 to 4.5 (figure 13). The male-female ratio for juvenile offending rates for serious violent crimes has also generally decreased, but not as consistently and not as much as the arrest rate ratio. The male-female ratio for offending rates (with adult co-offending included) decreased from a high of 22 in 1981 to 10.5 in 1998 (with a low of 7.3 in 1993). When adult co-offending is excluded, the ratio was 16.8 in 1981 and 10.4 in 1998 (with a low of 4.9 in 1993). Although this seems broadly consistent with the arrest data, the male-female ratio in offending has fluctuated throughout the period. Indeed, this ratio increased from 1996 to 1998 in the offending data, while it continued to decline in the arrest data.

One of the factors contributing to the decline in the overrepresentation of males in juvenile arrest rates for serious violent crimes has been the steady increase in the arrest rates for female juveniles since 1980. Between 1980 and 1998, the female juvenile arrest rate for serious violent crimes increased 89 percent, from 0.9 per 1,000 to 1.7 per 1,000 (figure 2). The arrest rate for male juveniles increased only 2 percent during the same period. Moreover, arrest rates for male juveniles fluctuated during this period, but arrest rates for female juveniles increased consistently throughout the 19 years. In contrast, female offending rates varied much more over time and did not show the steady increase found in the female arrest rates (figure 5).

Comparison by Race

The data on both offending and arrests showed that compared with white juveniles, black juveniles had much higher rates of involvement in serious violent crime. This disproportionality was greater in arrest rates than in offending rates. However, it decreased over time in both the arrest data and the offending data. Much of the overall decrease in the disproportionality of serious violent offending by black juveniles was the result of the large decrease in offending by blacks for these crimes that occurred after 1993.

During 1980–98, the average arrest rate for serious violent crimes was 5.7 times higher for black juveniles than for white juveniles. The black-white ratio for offending rates for serious violent crimes ranged from 4.1 (including adult co-offending) to 3.4 (excluding adult co-offending). Although blacks are overrepresented in both the offending data and the arrest data for 1980–98, the overrepresentation is greater in the arrest data.

Over time, the black-white arrest rate ratio declined from a high of 6.9 in 1983 to 3.9 in 1998, or 43 percent (figure 14). The comparable offending ratio (including adult co-offending) decreased from a high of 6.1 in 1992 to 2.4 in 1998, or 61 percent. When adult co-offending is excluded from the offending rates, the ratio decreased from a high of 5.2 in 1993 to a low of 1.9 for 1998, or 63 percent.

In the period 1992–98, the black-white arrest ratio was quite similar to the black-white offending ratio. On average during this period, the black arrest rate was 4.9 times that of whites. The black offending rate was 4.2 times that of whites when adult co-offending is excluded and 4.6 times that of whites when adult co-offending is included.

The decrease in the overrepresentation of blacks in juvenile arrest rates for serious violent crimes resulted in part from the steady increase in arrest rates for white juveniles since the early 1980s. The white juvenile arrest rate for serious violent crimes increased from 2.3 in 1980 to 4.2 in 1994 (figure 3), an increase of 83 percent. This rate only began to decrease noticeably in 1996. In contrast, the black juvenile arrest rate for serious violent crimes increased 64 percent during 1980–94, and, beginning in 1994, it decreased more sharply than the arrest rate for white juveniles. Looking at offending rates, the decrease in the racial disproportionality has resulted from decreases in black offending since 1990, not increases in white offending.

Trends in Juvenile Violent Offending: An Analysis of Victim Survey Data	OJJDP Bulletin • October 2002