Table 4: Adolescent Risk Factors for Adult Victimization, Offending, and Drug Use


Adult Problem Outcome (Dependent Variable) RL2* Adolescent Experience/ Characteristic (Independent Variable) Odds Ratio p(lr)

Violent victimization (n=506) 0.042 Violent victimization 2.2513

0.0001

Age in 1976: 11 2.3190 0.0024
                     12 0.8596  
                     13 0.5016  
Victimization-age interaction 1.8335 0.0278

Property victimization (n=507) 0.012 Property victimization 1.9431 0.0045

Domestic violence victimization (n=491) 0.059 Violent victimization

1.7038

0.0537

Violent offending (felony assault) 1.4827 0.0960
Male 1.9231 0.0046
Parents' socioeconomic status 0.9780 0.0022

Domestic violence perpetration (n=491) 0.081 Violent offending (felony assault)

2.1013

0.0048

Violent victimization 1.7496 0.0479
Male 0.2269 0.0000

Violent offending (felony assault) (n=496) 0.148 Violent offending (felony assault)

3.7906

0.0000

Violent victimization 3.5361 0.0086
Male 2.2081 0.0196
Parents' socioeconomic status 0.9784 0.0303

Property offending (felony theft) (n=505) 0.119 Property offending (felony theft)

2.4893

0.0034

Violent victimization 2.8771 0.0115
Male 2.7919 0.0011
Nonwhite 2.1114 0.0377

Marijuana use (n=505) 0.085 Marijuana use 3.7469 0.0000
Property victimization 1.8716 0.0125

Polydrug use (n=502) 0.082 Polydrug use 1.7995 0.0525
Marijuana use 3.2670 0.0000

Problem drug use (n=502) 0.117 Marijuana use 1.7724 0.0431
Polydrug use 3.6031 0.0000
Violent victimization 1.8810 0.0378
Male 1.5918 0.0537


* RL2 (explained variation) indicates the strength of the relationship between each adult problem outcome and the set of adolescent predictors, taken as a group. It is the percentage reduction in error of prediction. For example, an RL2 of 0.117 for problem drug use indicates that it is possible to reduce the error in predicting adult problem drug use by 11.7 percent if it is known whether the respondent is male and whether he or she was a victim of violence, a marijuana user, or a polydrug user in adolescence.

Odds ratios represent the factor by which to multiply the odds of a particular outcome for each predictor (e.g., being a victim of violence in adolescence multiplies the odds of being a problem drug user in adulthood by a factor of 1.88).

The p(lr) (the likelihood ratio criterion) indicates the extent to which the predictive effects of the adolescent variables are statistically significant. Backward stepwise elimination based on p(lr) was used to remove effects that were neither statistically significant nor marginally significant (with p < .05 representing statistical significance and p < .10 representing marginal significance) from the model.


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Short- and Long-Term Consequences of
Adolescent Victimization
Youth Violence Research Bulletin February 2002