Table 5: Adolescent Risk Factors for Adult Mental Health Problems

Adult Mental Health Problem (Dependent Variable) RL2* Adolescent Experience/Characteristic (Independent Variable) Odds Ratio p(lr)

Anxiety, ever (n=538) 0.055 Mental health problems 2.8722 0.0139
Age in 1976: 11 0.6199 0.0434
                     12 0.8267
                     13 1.9514

Anxiety, 1992 (n=538) 0.106 Mental health problems 3.7808 0.0114
Age in 1976: 11 0.2604 0.0060
                     12 1.2528
                     13 3.0649

Depression, ever (n=556) 0.045 Parent assessment of child as "messed up," "needs help,"
"has a lot of problems"
1.1575 0.0008
Male 0.4393 0.0015

Depression, 1992 (n=556) 0.058 Parent assessment of child as "messed up," "needs help,"
"has a lot of personal problems"
1.1451 0.0372
Mental health problems 2.0100 0.0103
Male 0.4735 0.0169

Posttraumatic stress disorder, ever (n=556) 0.105 Mental health problems 2.1811 0.0175
Violent victimization 2.1528 0.0366
Male 0.3736 0.0020
Parents' socioeconomic status 0.9723 0.0040
Age in 1976: 11 0.8495 0.0921
                     12 0.7569  
                     13 1.5552  

Posttraumatic stress disorder, 1992 (n=556) 0.101 Mental health problems 2.2905 0.0662
Male 0.3615 0.0250
Parents' socioeconomic status 0.9727 0.0472
Age in 1976: 11 0.4301 0.0473
                     12 1.2801  
                     13 1.8161  


* RL2 (explained variation) indicates the strength of the relationship between each adult problem outcome and the set of adolescent predictors, taken as a group. It is the percentage reduction in error of prediction. For example, an RL2 of 0.105 for ever having posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) indicates that it is possible to reduce the error in predicting ever having PTSD if it is known whether the respondent is male, how old the respondent was in 1976, what the respondent's parents' socioeconomic status is, and whether the respondent was a victim of violence or had mental health problems in adolescence.

Odds ratios represent the factor by which to multiply the odds of a particular outcome for each predictor (e.g., being a victim of violence in adolescence multiplies the odds of ever having PTSD by the time one reaches adulthood by a factor of 2.15).

The p(lr) (the likelihood ratio criterion) indicates the extent to which the predictive effects of the adolescent variables are statistically significant. Backward stepwise elimination based on p(lr) was used to remove effects that were neither statistically significant nor marginally significant (with p < .05 representing statistical significance and p < .10 representing marginal significance) from the model.


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Short- and Long-Term Consequences of
Adolescent Victimization
Youth Violence Research Bulletin February 2002