Table 6: Adolescent Predictors of Adult Success


  Adult Success Comparisons


Adolescent Predictor Global significance: p (likelihood ratio)* Nonsuccess Versus
Stable Success
Unstable Success Versus
Stable Success
Odds Ratio p (Wald statistic)* Odds Ratio p (Wald statistic)*

Violent victimization 0.109 1.376 0.097 0.905 0.555
Property victimization 0.748 0.856 0.516 1.028 0.885
Violent offending (felony assault) 0.086 1.800 0.040 1.093 0.733
Property offending (felony theft) 0.943 1.036 0.913 1.104 0.737
Alcohol use 0.278 0.795 0.119 0.967 0.769
Marijuana use 0.008 1.508 0.004 1.284 0.037
Polydrug use 0.294 0.771 0.160 0.803 0.197
Mental health problems
(self-report)
0.866 0.854 0.730 1.092 0.817
Mental health problems||
(parent assessment)
0.458 1.060 0.397 1.065 0.242
Male gender 0.182 1.570 0.222 1.671 0.084
Nonwhite race/ethnicity 0.155 2.246 0.083 1.808 0.134
Socioeconomic status 0.233 0.979 0.091 0.995 0.593
Age 0.678 0.932 0.719 1.100 0.536
Most recent grade point average 0.029 0.558 0.010 0.766 0.145
Adolescent employment 0.104 4.948 0.161 0.660 0.457
Intercept 0.271 0.072 0.121 0.480 0.540


Note: The RL2 (explained variation) for table 6 (0.127) indicates the strength of the relationship between adult success and the set of adolescent predictors, taken as a group. It is the percentage reduction in error of prediction. The RL2 of 0.127 indicates that it is possible to reduce the error in predicting adult success by 12.7 percent if all of the adolescent predictors listed in the table are known.

* The likelihood ratio criterion, p(lr), indicates the extent to which the predictive effects of the adolescent variables are statistically significant, either for the model as a whole (global significance) or for a particular comparison (nonsuccess versus stable success, or unstable success versus stable success). One way to interpret p(lr) is to think of it as the probability that the observed effect is just a coincidence, as opposed to a real effect of the adolescent predictor on the adult outcome. Effects are considered statistically significant if p < .05 or marginally significant if p < .10; if p is greater than .10, one cannot be certain whether the effect in the table represents a real impact of the predictor on the outcome, as opposed to random variation or coincidence.

Odds ratios represent the factor by which to multiply the odds of a particular outcome for each predictor (e.g., being a victim of violence in adolescence multiplies the odds of nonsuccess as opposed to stable success in adulthood by a factor of 1.376).

Cumulative frequency.

Cumulative prevalence.

|| Prevalence.

The intercept is the expected value of the outcome (actually, the natural logarithm of the odds of the outcome) if the values of all the predictors are zero.


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Short- and Long-Term Consequences of
Adolescent Victimization
Youth Violence Research Bulletin February 2002