The law establishing the committee passed in 1954, based on the view that early release would provide prisoners with incentives for good behavior and would allow authorities to treat each case thoughtfully and individually. The analysis considered 468 prisoners who were granted early release in 1971. It also considered 199 other prisoners to determine common sociodemographic and criminal variables. The recidivism rate of the group released in 1971 was 75.4 percent after 5 years. Detailed analysis of the decisionmaking process of the early release committee revealed a high error rate in predicting sucessful reintegration into society. All three predictors -the prison warden, a social worker, and the representative of the attorney general -- as well as the committee voting for release had high error rates. Although statistical studies show the existence of variables that could aid the decisionmaking process, each recommender and the committee used different factors, none of which were statistically significant and many of which were totally irrelevant. Each case does not receive sufficent time and effort during the decisionmaking process, resulting in a high rate of recidivism and danger to society. Data tables and 43 reference notes. (Author abstract modified)