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Dangerousness: Probability and Prediction, Psychiatry and Public Policy

NCJ Number
110751
Editor(s)
C D Webster, M H Ben-Aron, S J Hucker
Date Published
1985
Length
236 pages
Annotation
Twelve papers examine methodological, theoretical, clinical, legal, and policy issues related to dangerousness and its prediction.
Abstract
The legal standard of dangerousness is considered with reference to the reliability of such predictions, the effects of prediction on civil liberties, and the therapeutic role of the psychologist or psychiatrist. Methodological shortcomings of empirical studies of the prediction of dangerousness are discussed, and the phenomenology of violence associated with mental illness is elucidated. An analysis of two fictional characters from Graham Greene's novels is provided to examine the relationship between assessor and assessee. The reliability of clinical assessment is discussed as it relates to diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment response probabilities; the utility of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders III in assessment is examined. The types of data useful in the assessment of dangerousness are identified, as are first-, second-, and third-rank predictors. A diagnostic procedure is described for the prediction of wife assault in which videotaped scenarios are used to identify environmental variables that contribute to assaulters' loss of control. Results of a study of the accuracy of pretrial clinical predictions also are provided. Confinement careers of the criminal justice and mental health clientele are examined, and legal commitment criteria are evaluated as they relate to actual commitment decisionmaking and changes in admission rates. Legal and policy issues facing mental health professionals are considered with reference to professional liability and expert testimony. Chapter notes, references, and author and subject indexes. For individual papers, see NCJ 110752-110758.