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Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attacks

NCJ Number
116075
Journal
Risk Analysis Volume: 7 Issue: 1 Dated: (1987) Pages: 35-47
Author(s)
H F Martz; M E Johnson
Date Published
1987
Length
13 pages
Annotation
This article describes a probabilistic systems analysis model that can be used to assess the security of many types of systems vulnerable to terrorist attacks.
Abstract
The model is useful for developing safeguards for valuable documents or materials for either a fixed-site facility or a moving convoy against overt terrorist attack. In addition, the model can be used to rank sensitive areas at a security site to determine how and if they will survive a given hypothesized terrorist attack. Using event tree models, the site configuration, various defense strategies, and security configurations are computed. The computation utilizes a realistic engagement model and information on barrier penetration times. The methodology is illustrated by using two examples: a terrorist attack on a convoy carrying a missile from a storage to a launch facility and a terrorist attack on a munitions storage facility. The model is intended for the use of decision makers who must make security tradeoff analyses. 17 references. (Author abstract modified)

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