The model views patterns and changes in caseload dynamics as the result of three sets of factors: long-term local environmental trends, short-term fluctuations in local environmental conditions, and institutional constraints. It assumes that change is a nonlinear and contingent process, these characteristics of change being the consequences of the sensitivity of caseload dynamics to the initial environmental conditions of a locale and the infrequent and varied socioeconomic transitions that different locales experience. The study tested the influence of local environments and institutional constraints on caseload dynamics by examining two broad categories of civil cases: contract and property. These two types of cases should be influenced differently by environmental factors and should be sensitive to specific factors and transitions reflecting local contexts. Findings from the four counties suggest that the impact of change on caseload dynamics was both contingent and discontinuous. 1 table, 1 figure, 15 footnotes.