Economic turbulence, caused by a continuing recession, the possibility of another major oil shock, and the shift in competitive advantage away from North America to Asia and Europe, could negatively affect policing. Relative deprivation is psychologically more debilitating than absolute deprivation and can breed criminal activity. A separate but related trend is the possibility of jobless growth in which employment no longer follows the business cycle. As technology increases, the need for human labor decreases; if this occurs, high frustration levels could lead to higher crime rates. A double trend of globalization and continentalization could increase economic turbulence as well as immigration to Canada from the U.S., bringing with it a heightened risk of crime. The fourth trend concerns socioeconomic change and centers on three factors: Canada's weakening raison d'etre, increasing multipolarity within the country, and challenges fostered by immigration. The combination of these trends could lead to a political meltdown. Based on these trends, the author proposes four probable scenarios for Canada in the 1990's: maintenance of the status quo, Quebec separation, union with the United States, or a Canadian renaissance. 6 references