The ability of the social learning constructs to predict Time 1 drinking and, with the use of change scores, Time 2 drinking, as well as the change in drinking over time, was assessed. A total of 276 male and 399 female Time 2 subjects, ranging in age from 11 to 18 years, were matched successfully with their Time 1 questionnaire responses. The findings support social learning theory as elements of the theory predicted present and future drinking and changes in drinking over time. The more youths associated with peers that use alcohol, possess pro-drug definitions, and engage in peer discussions about drugs, the more likely they were to drink or engage in increased drinking. Both drinking and changes in drinking behavior were related to increases in positive peer discussions about drugs, increases in alcohol use by friends, and increases in personal approval of drugs. 2 tables and 37 references (Author abstract modified)