The paper identified several trends used to forecast the impact of smart card technology; the top five trends included level of public funding for welfare programs, population of welfare recipients in California, level of computer technology used by the welfare system, public attitudes toward welfare fraud, and cost of technology. The top five events incorporated into the futures analysis included Statewide computer system going online, Federal approval for California to distribute electronic benefits, welfare recipients required to obtain State identification card, funding approved for smart card implementation, and combined regulations for different welfare entitlement programs. Results of the analysis are presented as most likely, least desirable, and most desirable scenarios; strategic management and transition management plans are outlined to achieve the most desirable outcome. 11 tables, 4 illustrations, 71 notes, 71 references, and 4 appendixes