The policy is based in the belief that citizens are disproportionately at risk from individuals who commit certain types of offenses and that the government should tailor its response to offenders according to the severity of harm caused by the offense for which a conviction was obtained. This analysis addressed the following core assumptions of the policy: that future harmful behavior (dangerousness) is adequately described and predicted by current behavior, that public exposure to the risk of serious crime is most effectively reduced by longer periods of imprisonment, and that comprehensive programs of post- release supervision and rehabilitation are appropriate for all prisoners as a means of reducing the risk of additional offending. The author concludes that not one of these three assumptions is clearly supported in principle by the available literature, and an examination of available New Zealand data reinforces the literature's conclusions. Apparently, the policy was developed more to manage public perception that the government is acting to protect citizens than to actually achieve that goal. Real reductions in violence are likely to be achieved by broadening the debate on violence, by recognizing and accepting its sociocultural roots, and by putting in place a multifaceted strategy for prevention. 45 references