Great Britain Home Office research over the last decade has revealed a strong association between the level of recorded burglary and some crucial economic and demographic factors. These factors could be used to model most of the changes in crime since the early 1950’s and were interpreted as crucial underlying pressures on recorded property crime. Projections based on modifications of these models suggest that strong upward pressures on property crime are emerging and that the sustained fall in recorded property crime over the last 6 years may be about to reverse. However, recent data suggest that the relationship between the model predictors and trends in recorded property crime may be weakening. Therefore, these findings qualify these projections. The models aid understanding of pressures on aggregate property crime trends at a macro level and have proved reasonably reliable as a tool for projecting these trends. Only micro-level causal analysis can give a full explanation of what causes property crimes. Figures, tables, footnotes, appended methodological information, and 18 references