| NCJ Number: |
182745  |
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| Title: |
Mismeasurement of Illegal Drug Markets: The Implications of Its Irrelevance |
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| Author(s): |
Peter Reuter |
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| Date Published: |
1997 |
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| Annotation: |
This report examines the mismeasurement of illegal drug markets and the implications of its irrelevance. |
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| Abstract: |
The paper examines the official estimates of drug production, both in the United States and the rest of the world, and sales in the United States, showing how implausible the estimates are. It also describes the process that generates the estimates and its bureaucratic imperatives and considers the policy interpretation of the mismeasurement. In recent years, the Federal Government has developed systematic estimates of domestic expenditures that provide a reasonable basis for scaling the size of drug markets. However, these estimates co-exist with a disorderly series of Federal figures on international production and prices that make a mockery of the whole enterprise. These estimates and their components are so inconsistent and erratic that they demonstrate what might reasonably be called a “reckless disregard” for the truth. Moreover, the year-to-year fluctuations in these estimates may be wrong even in direction, let alone scale. The paper argues that the mismeasurement does not matter, as the numbers are just decorations on the policy process, rhetorical conveniences for official statements without any serious consequences. The irrelevance of the numbers is itself a condemnation of drug policy decisionmaking. Tables, notes, references |
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| Main Term(s): |
Controlled Substances |
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| Index Term(s): |
Decisionmaking; Drug abuse; Drug information; Drug manufacturing; Drug Policy; Drug research; Drug statistics; Research uses in policymaking; Statistics |
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| Publication Number: |
RAND/RP-613 |
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| Sponsoring Agency: |
Rand Corporation
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 |
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| Corporate Author: |
Rand Corporation
United States of America |
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| Sale Source: |
Rand Corporation
1776 Main Street
P.O. Box 2138
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States of America |
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| Publisher: |
http://www.rand.org |
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| Page Count: |
18 |
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| Format: |
Article |
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| Type: |
Issue Overview |
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| Language: |
English |
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| Country: |
United States of America |
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| Note: |
DCC |
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To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=182745 |
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