In recent social-theoretical work, risk has emerged as a central cultural theme. In the probation context, the rise of risk-based reasoning over the last decade or so has substantiated claims that the probation service is concerned with the accurate prediction and effective management of offender risk. The model of risk management appears to retain something of probation’s traditionally “disciplinary” approach, resting on an individualized rather than an actuarial conception of offenders. The late 1990's witnessed an increase of enthusiasm for actuarially derived assessment instruments able to provide a measurement of the likelihood of reconviction. Two probation services in England and Wales were invited to participate in a detailed, qualitative study of their policies and practices in this area. Both agencies had, in the previous months, adopted an explicit policy of “resources following risk.” Offending behavior was now the target of intervention, rather than the whole person or any underlying conflicts of difficulties he or she may have. Results showed that in the probation context, while actuarial conceptions of offenders were in some ways encouraged by a risk-based approach they were, in other respects, its antithesis. Even where probation practice is aspiring to an actuarial approach, namely in respect of the mainstream offender population, attempts to govern by numbers appear to be having the paradoxical effect of reinforcing the salience of the individualized subject of discipline. 74 references