As part of the strategic planning process, the Home Office commissioned research to estimate the impact of a range of crime reduction policies from the end of 2002/03 to the end of 2007/08. Modeling was conducted to explore the independent impact of a variety of crime reduction programs put forth by the Home Office, including the Narrowing the Justice Gap (NJG), the Drugs Strategy, policing, reduced re-offending, and situational crime reduction initiatives. The background changes in crime that would be expected as a consequence of societal changes were taken into account. Data were drawn from the British Crime Survey (BCS), which records crimes as perceived by a sample of households in Great Britain. Results of the modeling suggest that crime could be reduced by about 24.5 percent through planned and prospective crime reduction policies. However, crime analysis forecasts indicate a rise of about 9 percent in the overall crime rate, which would offset the reduction in crime. Thus, the overall analysis indicates the crime reduction policies of the Home Office could reduce crime by 15 percent by the end of 2007/08. Programs that are integral in achieving this reduction are identified as the NJG, the Drugs Strategy, and improvements in policing. Other significant contributions were found in reduced re-offending, situational crime reduction initiatives, early interventions, and anti-social behavior policy. The full impacts of improved policing and anti-social behavior policies could not be estimated because they were not readily amenable to modeling. The contribution expected from these unmodeled elements was estimated at about 4.2 percent of the targeted reduction in crime. Tables, figures, annex, glossary, references