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Bad Behavior or Bad Policy?: An Examination of Tennessee Release Cohorts, 1993-2001

NCJ Number
212376
Journal
Criminology & Public Policy Volume: 4 Issue: 3 Dated: August 2005 Pages: 485-518
Author(s)
James A. Wilson
Date Published
August 2005
Length
34 pages
Annotation
This study analyzed the increase in Tennessee reincarceration rates during the period 1993 through 2001.
Abstract
Recidivism rates have influenced both criminological theory and criminal justice policy for the past three decades. Indeed, State criminal justice systems tend to adjust policy and management based on recidivism and reincarceration rates. The Tennessee Department of Correction (TDOC) reported a stark increase in reincarceration rates for paroled offenders between 1993 and 1997. In order to examine the possible underlying factors leading to this increase in recidivism for paroled offenders, the author re-analyzed the Tennessee data, adding more years (1993 through 2001). Results of statistical analyses indicated support for the original Tennessee report of a sharp increase in reincarceration rates for paroled offenders during the period 1993 through 1997. The findings further indicated that the increase in the re-incarceration rate was not associated with increased criminality among the parole population, but rather reflected changes in parole policies. This finding suggests that the high reincarceration rates during the study period were due to violations of the technical conditions of parole rather than an increase in crimes committed by the paroled population. The study highlights the ways in which changes in criminal justice policy can influence crime and recidivism rates in the absence of an actual change in the criminality of the population. Footnotes, tables, figures, appendix, references