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Reassessing Who Contributed Most to the Decline in Violence During the 1990s: A Reminder That Size Does Matter

NCJ Number
213275
Journal
Violence and Victims Volume: 21 Issue: 1 Dated: February 2006 Pages: 23-47
Author(s)
Callie Marie Rennison Ph.D.; Mike Planty Ph.D.
Date Published
February 2006
Length
25 pages
Annotation
This study describes nonfatal violence trends between 1994 and 2001, focusing on how the risk for violence differed among victim populations, how the risks varied over time, and the differential contributions made by each group to the overall decline in crime during this period.
Abstract
In contrast to previous findings, results of the current research indicated no significant decrease in levels of nonfatal serious violent crime among young, Black, urban males between 1994 and 2001. There was a measurable decrease in serious violence against young, White, nonurban, males that contributed most significantly to the overall drop in nonfatal serious victimization during the study period. The reduction in firearm violence also significantly contributed to the overall reduction in nonfatal serious violence. The findings suggest that the prominent role given to young, Black, urban males as the main contributing factor for the overall drop in violence during the 1990s is misleading. Data were drawn from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) on the serious violent crimes of rape, sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault. The analytic technique involved the calculations of variance estimates, standard errors, and confidence intervals. Future research on the contemporary crime decline should consider multi-level investigations. Figures, tables, notes, references