The study found that MVT rates increased later in time in communities that were more racially mixed initially and in those communities surrounded by other communities with initially higher MVT rates. This suggests that existing community racial characteristics and concurrent MVT rates of surrounding communities predict subsequent trends in MVT rates. A second series of models linked changing MVT rates with simultaneously increasing racial heterogeneity, decreasing community instability, and increasing MVT rates in surrounding communities. Some links were found between community structural characteristics and changing delinquency or crime patterns. Since this study identified factors that can predict MVT rate shifts, this has implications for the crafting of long-term risk-reduction efforts. This study used police data on MVT in one midwestern city for the periods 1990-1991 and 2000-2001 in order to determine MVT rates for the city. These data were linked with data on census block group that included median household income, home ownership, population mobility, type of housing, percentage of Blacks and Whites in the population, percentage of males in various age groups, and the number of vehicles. Data for MVT and other crimes were determined for surrounding jurisdictions. 5 tables, 18 notes, and 94 references