Scenarios were developed on the vulnerability of economic sectors in the European Union (EU). Literature review and focus groups revealed that intellectual property rights and the regulation of economic sectors are two key issues in the vulnerability of economic sectors. The scenarios explain why these issues matter, why policymaking concerning these issues is important, and what the consequences might be if these issues are left unattended. The scenario study developed, on the vulnerability of economic sectors, provides clear focuses for strategy development. Scenarios are sensitizing tools that can point to threats and challenges for which Europe does not seem to be ready and is not always anticipating properly. However, this paper stresses that strategic planning aimed at controlling organized crime is inevitably faced with uncertainty. It is believed that the process of decisionmaking should be informed by the exploration and assessment of structural vulnerabilities which are vital to societies or communities and which policymakers can prepare for. It is in this regard that scenario studies could make a significant contribution to the contemporary policing of organized crime. Contemporary policing and the control of organized crime involve priority setting, strategic planning, and the use of strategic planning tools. This paper explores the limits of future orientedness in organized crime decisionmaking and suggests that strategic planners cannot predict coming threats and challenges. It is argued that all that decisionmakers can do is examine the knowledge base that informs their decisions, evaluate and reflect on the outcome of their decisions, and draw from a multidisciplinary informed knowledge base to reflect on ways in which socioeconomic, technological, legal, and political developments, and vulnerabilities might pose security threats and challenges. This paper provides a conceptual and methodological framework for scenario-based strategic planning. Notes and references