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Policing Terror Threats and False Positives: Employing a Signal Detection Model to Examine Changes in National and Local Policing Strategy Between 2001 and 2007

NCJ Number
233426
Journal
Security Journal Volume: 24 Issue: 1 Dated: February 2011 Pages: 19-36
Author(s)
John C. Kilburn Jr.; Stephen E. Costanza; Eric Metchik; Kevin Borgeson
Date Published
February 2011
Length
18 pages
Annotation
This paper examines whether 'hypervigilance', the policing strategy utilized for decisionmaking in the United States with regard to homeland security since 2001, is testable in the same fashion of standard criminal justice policy. It uses the signal detection theory (SDT) and probability theory to examine the basic logistics of agency decisionmaking.
Abstract
This paper presents a theory of agency decisionmaking regarding homeland security policy over the last decade in the United States and inquires about appropriate modes of study to test its potential effectiveness. The key hypothesis is that the staple strategy of agency decisionmaking during the last decade has been 'hypervigilance'; defined here as: a state in which agency policy is rationally structured to maximize the pursuit of false positives and gravitate aggressively toward security threats. The related research question is 'How can we study hypervigilance and false positives in all matters regarding policing terror threats?' The authors argue that increased security measures tend to err toward pursuing false positives. However, they do not claim to understand the overall economic costs and benefits of recent homeland security policy decisions, in tangible financial or other realms. The authors contend that such an understanding is presently unattainable, considering the lack of raw data availability of how many terrorist attacks have been halted by increased security measures within the last decade. The authors do argue however, that the signal detection model is an appropriate starting methodology for study of such policing strategies. (Published Abstract) Tables, figure, notes, and references