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Predictive Value of Criminal Background Checks: Do Age and Criminal History Affect Time to Redemption?

NCJ Number
234091
Journal
Criminology Volume: 49 Issue: 1 Dated: February 2011 Pages: 27-60
Author(s)
Shawn D. Bushway; Paul Nieuwbeerta; Arjan Blokland
Date Published
February 2011
Length
34 pages
Annotation
This article examines the use of criminal background checks.
Abstract
Criminal record checks are being used increasingly by decisionmakers to predict future unwanted behaviors. A central question these decisionmakers face is how much time it takes before offenders can be considered "redeemed" and resemble nonoffenders in terms of the probability of offending. Building on a small literature addressing this topic for youthful, first-time offenders, the current article asks whether this period differs across the age of last conviction and the total number of prior convictions. Using long-term longitudinal data on a Dutch conviction cohort, the authors found that young novice offenders were redeemed after approximately 10 years of remaining crime free. For older offenders, the redemption period is considerably shorter. Offenders with extensive criminal histories, however, either never resemble their nonconvicted counterparts or only do so after a crime-free period of more than 20 years. Practical and theoretical implications of these findings are discussed. (Published Abstract) Tables, figures, and references