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STATISTICAL CASE FOR THE 12-MEMBER JURY

NCJ Number
39407
Journal
Trial Volume: 13 Issue: 2 Dated: (FEBRUARY 1977) Pages: 41-42
Author(s)
A E GELFAND
Date Published
1977
Length
2 pages
Annotation
THE AUTHOR EXAMINES QUALITATIVE, QUANTITATIVE, AND STATISTICAL ARGUMENTS CONCERNING USE OF SIX-MEMBER JURIES, AND CONCLUDES THAT THERE IS AN INCREASING BODY OF EVIDENCE INDICATING ADVERSE RESULTS WITH SMALL JURIES.
Abstract
IT IS NOTED THAT JURY SIZE MAY AFFECT PERFORMANCE IN TWO WAYS: SMALLER JURIES MAY BE LESS REPRESENTATIVE, AND THEIR DECISIONS MAY, THEREFORE, BE LESS REFLECTIVE OF THE COMMUNITY; AND SMALLER JURIES MAY HAVE POORER PROBLEM-SOLVING SKILLS SINCE THEY WILL HAVE INPUT FROM FEWER INDIVIDUALS. FINALLY, THE AUTHOR CITES RESULTS OF STATISTICAL MODEL OF THE JURY DECISIONMAKING PROCESS WHICH SHOWS THAT SMALLER JURIES ARE INFERIOR. FOR EXAMPLE, THE MODEL SHOWED THAT FOR 12-MEMBER JURIES, THE PROBABILITY OF CONVICTING AN INNOCENT PERSON IS .0221, AND THE PROBABILITY OF ACQUITTING A GUILTY PERSON IS .0615. FOR A 6-MEMBER JURY, THESE ERRORS ARE INCREASED BY MORE THAN 50 PERCENT; THE PROBABILITIES RISE TO .0325 AND .1395 RESPECTIVELY....DMC

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