ANNUAL DATA ON THE FOLLOWING VARIABLES FOR 1950 THROUGH 1974 ARE EMPLOYED IN THE ANALYSIS POPULATION ESTIMATES BY RACE AND BY AGE; CONSUMER PRICE INDEX; MEDIAN INCOME FOR FAMILIES AND UNRELATED INDIVIDUALS; MEDIAN INCOME FOR WHITE AND NONWHITE FAMILIES; RATIO OF MEDIAN INCOME FOR NONWHITE FAMILIES TO THAT FOR WHITE FAMILIES; INTERQUARTILE RANGE OF INCOME FOR FAMILIES AND UNRELATED INDIVIDUALS; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE; EXPENDITURES; SIZE OF POLICE FORCE; CRIME RATES (VIOLENT CRIME, PROPERTY CRIME, AND INDEX OFFENSES); AND CLEARANCE RATES. DESCRIPTIVE MODELS ARE DEVELOPED FOR CRIME RATES AND RELATED VARIABLES. AN INVESTIGATION OF SIMULTANEOUS-EQUATION, EXPLANATORY MODELS FOR THE INTERRELATION OF THESE VARIABLES AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC VARIABLES FOLLOWS. THE RESULTANT EXPLANATORY MODEL IS USED TO GENERATE PREDICTIONS THROUGH THE YEAR 2000. IN GENERAL, THE ANALYSIS POINTS TO AN UPWARD TREND IN THE CRIME RATE, TEMPERED BY A FLUCTUATING COMPONENT, THROUGHOUT THE SAMPLE PERIOD (1950-74) AND THE PROSPECTIVE PERIOD (1975-2000). THE TREND IS LARGELY A FUNCTION OF THE COMSUMER PRICE INDEX. THE FLUCTUATING COMPONENT IS RELATED TO THE AGE COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION. SUPPORTING DATA, MATHEMATICAL FORMULATIONS, AND A BIBLIOGRAPHY ARE INCLUDED. (LKM)