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USE OF THE DELPHI METHOD AS A MEANS OF ASSESSING JUDICIAL MANPOWER NEEDS

NCJ Number
48285
Journal
Justice System Journal Volume: 3 Issue: 3 Dated: (SPRING 1978) Pages: 314-321
Author(s)
H G MCDONALD; C P KIRSCH
Date Published
1978
Length
8 pages
Annotation
VARIOUS METHODS WHICH HAVE BEEN USED BY STATES TO DETERMINE JUDICIAL MANPOWER NEEDS ARE REVIEWED WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE CASE WEIGHTING METHOD UNDER STUDY IN PENNSYLVANIA.
Abstract
FOR MANY YEARS THE MOST POPULAR METHOD FOR DETERMINING MANPOWER ALLOCATIONS WAS POPULATION. WHILE SUCH A SYSTEM IS SIMPLE, FUNCTIONS AUTOMATICALLY AT MINIMAL EXPENSE, AND IS NOT SUBJECT TO POLITICAL MANIPULATION, IT FAILS TO ACCOUNT FOR VARIATIONS, WHICH ACCOMPANY DIFFERENT TYPES OF POPULATIONS. IT FAILS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE EFFECTS OF POPULATION DENSITY, SOCIOECONOMIC MIX, AVAILABILITY OF LEGAL RESOURCES, AND LOCAL LAW PRACTICES, ALL OF WHICH MAY INFLUENCE BOTH THE NUMBER AND TYPES OF CASES. IOWA DEVELOPED A FORMULA FOR JUDICIAL MANPOWER ALLOCATION BASED THE NUMBER OF FILINGS WITHIN JUDICIAL DISTRICTS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM TAKES GREATER ACCOUNT OF THE ACTUAL JUDICIAL WORKLOAD, IT STILL FAILS TO CONSIDER THAT NOT ALL FILINGS OR CASES ARE DISPOSED OF IN THE SAME MANNER. FOR INSTANCE THE DEMANDS OF AN UNCONTESTED DIVORCE ARE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THOSE OF A MURDER TRIAL. THE CALIFORNIA CASE-WEIGHTING SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO OVERCOME THIS PROBLEM BY DETERMINING MANPOWER NEEDS ON THE BASIS OF EMPIRICALLY DETERMINED TIME VALUES FOR THE VARIOUS TYPES OF CASES. WHILE SUCH A SYSTEM ALLOWS A CONCISE ESTIMATE OF DISPOSITION TIMES, IT IS EXPENSIVE, REQUIRES UPDATING, AND DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LESS OVERT TIME ELEMENTS SUCH AS RESEARCH, PREPARATION, AND CONSULTATION. THE DELPHI METHOD, A CASE-WEIGHTING SYSTEM DEVELOPED BY THE RAND CORPORATION AND FIRST STUDIED IN THE MICHIGAN COURT SYSTEM, IS A METHOD OF DETERMINING CASE WEIGHTS ON THE BASIS OF ESTIMATES OF A PANEL OF EXPERTS. THIS METHOD IS BEING STUDIED IN PENNSYLVANIA. IN ORDER TO BE ASSURED OF A REPRESENTATIVE PANEL, IN CHOOSING JUDGES FOR THE PANEL, CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO THE SIZE AND LOCATION OF EACH JUDICIAL DISTRICT FROM WHICH THE PANELIST WAS DRAWN. EACH OF THE 22 JUDGES CHOSEN WAS ASKED TO RANK ON A 1 TO 10 SCALE THE AVERAGE TIME REQUIRED FOR DISPOSITION OF 24 DIFFERENT TYPES OF CASES. IN THE SECOND ROUND, PANELISTS WERE PERMITTED TO RECONSIDER THEIR ESTIMATES WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF THE PANEL'S CONSENSUS. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF LOWERING THE STANDARD DEVIATION OF THE AVERAGES OBTAINED IN THE FIRST ROUND. FOR EACH JURISDICTION, THE AVERAGE ESTIMATES OF TIME REQUIRED FOR DISPOSITION OF EACH TYPE ARE MULTIPLIED BY THE TOTAL CASES DISPOSED OF IN EACH CATEGORY. THE SUM TOTALS FOR THE 24 CATEGORIES DIVIDED BY THE NUMBER OF JUDGES IN THE DISTRICT SHOWS THE WEIGHTED CASE DISPOSITION PER JUDGE PER JURISDICTION. THE DELPHI METHOD PROVIDES AN INEXPENSIVE MEANS FOR DETERMINING ACTUAL JUDICIAL MANPOWER NEEDS WHILE ALSO INVOLVING THE JUDICIARY IN THE DECISIONMAKING PROCESS. REFERENCE NOTES AND TABULAR DATA ARE PROVIDED. (JAP)

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