A BRIEF HISTORICAL CONSIDERATION OF CRIME AND CRIMINALITY AND PAROLE OUTCOME PREDICTION STUDIES INDICATES SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THEIR METHODOLOGIES AND ACCURACY AND THOSE OF WEATHER FORECASTS AND ACTUARIAL TABLES USED BY INSURANCE COMPANIES TO DETERMINE ACCEPTABLE RISKS. STUDIES CONDUCTED IN FOREIGN COUNTRIES, SUCH AS CANADA, POLAND, WEST GERMANY, GREECE, AND OTHERS ARE CITED, WITH THE CAVEAT THAT EACH COUNTRY MUST RELY CHIEFLY ON ITS OWN RESEARCH IN THIS FIELD, BECAUSE CRIMES AND CRIMINALS ARE AS DIFFERENT IN EACH COUNTRY AS LOCAL CONDITIONS. THE PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF PROBATION OUTCOME PREDICTION STUDIES AND THEIR COMPARISON TO ACTUAL PAROLE VIOLATION AND RECIDIVISM RATES CONSIST IN THEIR USE AS TOOLS FOR PROBATION OFFICERS IN MAKING EDUCATED GUESSES OF HOW MANY HIGH-RISK CASES THEY CAN INCLUDE IN THEIR CASELOADS, THE DEGREE OF SUPERVISION REQUIRED BY EACH PROBATIONER UNDER THEIR JURISDICTION, WHETHER AND FOR WHOM SUPERVISION CAN BE RELAXED OR SHOULD BE INTENSIFIED, AND FOR WHOM PAROLE SHOULD REVOKED ALTOGETHER. COMPUTER-AIDED STUDIES IN THIS FIELD ARE BEING CONDUCTED IN ENGLAND AND IN THE UNITED STATES. AMONG THE LATTER IS THE CALIFORNIA-BASED 'SIMULATION AS A BASIS OF SOCIAL AGENTS' DECISIONS' (SIMBAD) WHICH SUPPLIES PROBATION OFFICERS WITH CONTINUOUSLY UPDATED INFORMATION. --IN SPANISH. (LGR).