The model's dependent variable is the length of time, in months, from release until reincarceration in the prison units of the North Carolina Department of Correction. Independent variables include the individual's problems with alcohol, recorded use of hard drugs, supervision on release, rule violations during incarceration, and prior convictions. Other independent variables include the type of crime, the crime's seriousness, marital status, participation in work release programs, and years of schooling. The sample used to test the model consisted of 2,216 individuals released from North Carolina prisons in the first half of 1975. Results show that the type of individual who is likely to return to prison soonest is young, single, and uneducated; has had many previous convictions and rule violations; and had committed a crime which was not a crime against a person. The model was used to evaluate a vocational evaluation program for youthful offenders. Data from 489 inmates released between February 1975, and February 1977, were used to evaluate the program. Actual recidivism was lower than predicted recidivism for individuals who participated in the program for the 2d, 3d, 5th, and 6th months after release. Actual and predicted recidivism did not differ beyond 6 months, although the number of returnees was greater than predicted. Results indicate a rapid drop in any beneficial effects of the program and suggest that the program's followup phase should be lenghtened and strenghened and that the program should be more fully evaluated. Tables, notes, and 12 references are included.