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NCJ Number:	91870

Title:	Before-and-After Experiment With a Baseline Period of Random Duration - Analysis of a Contingent Experimental Design

Document:	PDF

Author(s):	T R Willemain

Date Published:	1978

Annotation:	This paper introduces a simple 'contingent experimental design' and outlines how the contingent design would operate and how it would be evaluated.

Abstract:	The familiar 'before-and-after' type of experiment is modified so that the duration of the 'baseline' period, rather than being fixed before the experiment, is made contingent on the experimenter's prior estimate of the experimental impact and on the baseline data as they appear. At the conclusion of each day of the baseline period, a decision is made as to whether to terminate the baseline at that time, weighing the costs of extending the baseline by one day against the benefits of better estimating the experimental impact. An analytic framework is proposed for making this decision and for comparing the contingent design against an alternative having a baseline period of fixed duration. Equations, figures, and three references are supplied. (Author abstract modified)

Index Term(s):	Research methods

Grant Number:	78 NI-AX-0007

Publication Number:	OR 079-78

Sponsoring Agency:	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA 02139 National Institute of Justice/ Rockville, MD 20849 NCJRS Photocopy Services Rockville, MD 20849-6000 US Dept of Justice US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub Washington, DC 20531

Corporate Author:	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Operations Research Ctr United States of America

Sale Source:	National Institute of Justice/ NCJRS paper reproduction Box 6000, Dept F Rockville, MD 20849 United States of America NCJRS Photocopy Services Box 6000 Rockville, MD 20849-6000 United States of America

Page Count:	21

Language:	English

Country:	United States of America

Note:	Working Paper



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