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Security Management of the Future

NCJ Number
94355
Journal
Security Management Volume: 27 Issue: 12 Dated: (March 1984) Pages: 47-51
Author(s)
O O Wainwright
Date Published
1984
Length
5 pages
Annotation
Studying the future is critical for the astute security professional, and practitioners should use futuristic methods to examine long-term changes caused by social, economic, technical, and environmental factors that affect organizational management.
Abstract
The basic definition of security has withstood the test of time, but the organizational environment has changed. The information age produced more decentralized organizations with integrated networks, and consequently security managers need to understand the formal and informal movements of security programs through complex organizations. Several analytical and forecasting techniques in the futuristics field allow the security professional to adopt a global view of the organization and to make long-range plans. One technique applies causal models to depict cause-effect relationships. Another method, the Delphic process, is particularly appropriate to security. A chairman devises a question or issue statement and solicits several rounds of responses from specialists who offer opinions independently. Through compilation and analysis of their responses, a consensus view can be formed. This technique takes a long time and requires strong support from top management. Cross matrix analysis allows the security director to examine how existing security program components might be affected by espionage and sabotage in each of the critical years identified in the Delphic process. In the backward planning method, the security director devises a conceptual view of security at some future time and asks members of the management team to identify changes that should occur each year to reach appropriate levels of security by that date. Case studies demonstrate each technique.

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