For the purposes of the study, a large police department was defined as one that delivers services in an urban area and has at least 200 sworn officers. The study identified 49 social, political, and economic trends and events deemed relevant to the research issue and that could affect the change process over the 10-year period under consideration. Beginning with a nominal group technique and later a modified conventional Delphi process, a group consisting of police chiefs, college professors, police managers, and private-sector business executives winnowed the trends and events down to a list of seven each. The final list contained those trends and events the panel believed would have the greatest effects upon the change process in large departments. The panel then forecasted the future probability of these trends and events, assessed their potential impact upon the others, and analyzed how these issues might affect the development of a new policing model. Study results suggest that community policing is more likely to be a blend or hybrid of the problem-oriented and professional models. This hybrid model can achieve the goal of aggressive order maintenance, longer-term problemsolving, and community partnerships without taking on the questionable responsibilities of full-time neighborhood management. Most important of all, the model can be implemented over a relatively short period. With sufficient training, it should enjoy acceptance by most of a department's members. 26 notes