skip navigation


Abstract Database

Register for Latest Research

Stay Informed
Register with NCJRS to receive NCJRS's biweekly e-newsletter JUSTINFO and additional periodic emails from NCJRS and the NCJRS federal sponsors that highlight the latest research published or sponsored by the Office of Justice Programs.

NCJRS Abstract

To download this abstract, check the box next to the NCJ number then click the "Back To Search Results" link. Then, click the "Download" button on the Search Results page. Also see the Obtain Documents page for direction on how to access resources online, via mail, through interlibrary loans, or in a local library.


NCJ Number: 187081 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: Estimation of Cocaine Availability, 1996-1999
Corporate Author: Abt Associates, Inc
United States of America
Date Published: December 2000
Page Count: 95
Sponsoring Agency: Abt Associates, Inc
Cambridge, MA 02138
Drug Policy Information Clearinghouse
Rockville, MD 20849
NCJRS Photocopy Services
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
Office of National Drug Control Policy
Washington, DC 20500
US Dept of Health and Human Services
Washington, DC 20201
Contract Number: 282-98-0006;
Sale Source: NCJRS Photocopy Services
Box 6000
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
United States of America

Drug Policy Information Clearinghouse
P.O. Box 6000
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Document: PDF
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Format: Document
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This report presents estimates of cocaine availability, discusses the new model used to develop the estimates, and explains how the Sequential Transition and Reduction (STAR) model goes beyond predecessor flow models and provides the best current basis for measuring the flow of cocaine starting with its origins.
Abstract: The STAR model takes a systems approach to estimate the flow from producer countries through the transit zones, across borders, and throughout the United States. The model breaks cocaine movement down into a series of stages based on the cultivation, production, transportation, and marketing of the product. The model estimates cocaine availability at each stage by triangulating between three dynamic existing processes. The first process estimates coca cultivation based on overhead imagery. The second estimates cocaine leaving South America based on tabulation of movement events. The third process estimates United States consumption based on prevalence estimates and trends in cocaine price and purity. Data sources include the Federal Drug Seizure system, the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse, the Consolidated Counterdrug Database, the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring Program, coca cultivation data, and the Drug Enforcement Administration’s System to Retrieve Information on Drug Evidence. The estimates reveal that as expected, the potential production estimates exceed all other estimates every year and that the estimate of domestic consumption has been stable at 500-600 metric tons over the past 4 years from 1996 through 1999. The analysis concludes that the STAR model provides a means of incorporating differing data within a cohesive structure and that a consumption-based estimate of cocaine availability provides a consistent approach for integrating the various data set. Figures, tables, footnotes, appended tables and background information, and 19 references
Main Term(s): Drug statistics
Index Term(s): Cocaine; Drug abuse; Drug business; Drug law offenses; Drug manufacturing; Drug purchases; Drug smuggling; Drug sources; Estimates; Estimating methods
To cite this abstract, use the following link:

*A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents not available online, a link to the publisher's website is provided. Tell us how you use the NCJRS Library and Abstracts Database - send us your feedback.