skip navigation


Abstract Database

Register for Latest Research

Stay Informed
Register with NCJRS to receive NCJRS's biweekly e-newsletter JUSTINFO and additional periodic emails from NCJRS and the NCJRS federal sponsors that highlight the latest research published or sponsored by the Office of Justice Programs.

NCJRS Abstract

To download this abstract, check the box next to the NCJ number then click the "Back To Search Results" link. Then, click the "Download" button on the Search Results page. Also see the Obtain Documents page for direction on how to access resources online, via mail, through interlibrary loans, or in a local library.


NCJ Number: 249740 Find in a Library
Title: Intra-Metropolitan Crime Patterning and Prediction, Executive Summary
Author(s): Ralph B. Taylor; Elizabeth R. Groff; David Elesh; Lallen Johnson
Date Published: February 2016
Page Count: 27
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice (NIJ)
Washington, DC 20531
US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
Washington, DC 20531
Grant Number: 2009-IJ-CX-0026
Sale Source: US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
810 Seventh Street, NW
Washington, DC 20531
United States of America
Document: PDF
Type: Report (Grant Sponsored); Report (Study/Research); Report (Summary); Research (Applied/Empirical)
Format: Document; Document (Online)
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This is the executive summary of a report on the study that examined the patterning and predictability of jurisdictional-level reported crime in the Philadelphia-Camden primary metropolitan statistical area.
Abstract: The crime patterns in this statistical area were examined from three complementary perspectives: the ecology of crime, the geography of crime, and the political economy of crime. Based on these analyses of crime, researchers examined the extent to which crime shifts are predictable for the next 1 year or 3 years. The study drew four conclusions about crime differences among jurisdictions within the statistical area. First, the crime dynamics in one jurisdiction were linked to crime levels in nearby jurisdictions. Second, for every year examined, distinctive crime levels were found by geographic sub-regions. Third, the geographic patterning of crime differences, at least for violent crimes, roughly matched what researchers expected, given geographically distinctive structural inequalities. An unexpected related finding was that sub-regions with the lowest levels of violent crime were in the Pennsylvania side of the metro area. A fourth finding was that community crime rates affected community structure. Regarding community structure, the study found that socioeconomic status, residential stability, and racial composition linked with crime levels or crime changes in the ways anticipated by the systemic model of crime forecasting. Crime levels reflected current inequalities in community structure, which were linked to disparities in community quality of life and government services. Policy-related implications drawn are relevant to State and local governments as well as police. 4 figures
Main Term(s): Criminology
Index Term(s): Crime patterns; Crime prediction; Crime Risk Factors; Geographic distribution of crime; New Jersey; NIJ final report; NIJ Resources; Pennsylvania
Note: For the full report, see NCJ-249739.
To cite this abstract, use the following link:

*A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents not available online, a link to the publisher's website is provided. Tell us how you use the NCJRS Library and Abstracts Database - send us your feedback.